Winter 2020/2021 news

Met Office suggests UK snowy winters may be a thing of the past

A recent report published by the Met Office has suggested that the UK will experience less snow in the future. By 2040, most of southern England could be virtually frost free. By 2060, only high ground and Scotland will experience significantly cold periods and, by the end of the century, lying snow will virtually disappear apart from on the highest ground in the north.

The report models projected climate change based on the acceleration of global greenhouse gas emissions. If the world reduces emissions, the impacts will be less extreme.

If emissions continue to accelerate, leading to a global temperature rise of 4C, then the average coldest day in the UK would remain above 0 Celsius across most of the country throughout winter. Even if global emissions are reduced dramatically and world temperatures rise by 2C, the average coldest day in the UK is likely be 0 Celsius.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55179603

Dr Lizzie Kenton (Senior Met Office scientist) said: "The overarching picture is warmer, wetter winters; hotter, drier summers. But within that, we get this shift towards more extreme events, so more frequent and intense extremes, so heavier rainfall when it occurs."

Further information

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55179603

What will climate change look like for me?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-d6338d9f-8789-4bc2-b6d7-3691c0e7d138

‘Report Card 2020’ considers impacts of climate change on world’s oceans

The Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP) has recently published Report Card 2020 which considers the impact of climate change on global oceanic systems.

Report Card 2020 summarises the latest evidence from 26 topics regarding the physical, ecological, and social and economic impacts of climate change on UK coasts and seas. New topics for this year include oxygen, cultural heritage, and transport and infrastructure.

More than 150 scientists from over 50 leading research organisations have contributed to this year’s Report Card, producing 26 peer-reviewed scientific reports which give detailed information regarding the evidence bases on UK marine climate change impacts.

‘The 2020 Report Card makes for sobering reading, and many of its messages are clear and unambiguous: global temperatures are rising and this is leading to warming seas, reduced oxygen, increased acidification and rising sea levels. These global changes are affecting the UK continental shelf and coastal waters, and are having an impact on our ecosystems.’

https://nerc.ukri.org/planetearth/stories/1939/

http://www.mccip.org.uk/impacts-report-cards/full-report-cards/2020/

The key headlines of Report Card 2020 are:

• • There is clear evidence that warming seas, reduced oxygen, ocean acidification and sea-level rise are already affecting UK coasts and seas. Increasingly, these changes are having an impact on food webs, with effects seen in seabed-dwelling species, as well as plankton, fish, birds and mammals.
  • The upper range for the latest UK sea-level rise projections is higher than previous estimates, implying increased coastal-flood risk. The likelihood of compound effects from tidal flooding and extreme rainfall is increasing, which can greatly exacerbate flood impacts.
  • Oxygen concentrations in UK seas are projected to decline more than the global average, especially in the North Sea.
  • Fisheries productivity in some UK waters has been negatively impacted by ocean warming and historical overexploitation.
  • Impacts of climate change have already been observed at a range of heritage sites. Coastal assets will be subjected to enhanced rates of erosion, inundation and weathering or decay.

http://www.mccip.org.uk/impacts-report-cards/full-report-cards/2020/

The report also considers a number of controversial questions, such as whether extreme events (such as storms and waves) are becoming more severe and whether such a trend can be attributed to climate change. For example, whilst wave heights in the NE Atlantic have increased since the 1950s, modelling has not been able to attribute this directly to climate change.

The National Oceanography Centre (NOC), funded by NERC, has been working closely with MCCIP on a number of projects including global ecosystems, circulation and climate and marine geoscience. Research into the potential impacts of climate change on low-lying coastlines has identified regions to be most at risk from a one-metre rise in sea level to include East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa.

• • In a study of the Caribbean island of St Vincent, scientists from the NOC calculated that a one-metre rise in sea level will place 10% of the country’s tourist infrastructure at risk.
  • A study of the Pearl River Delta (China) identified potentially catastrophic impacts of sea level rise on human and economic systems

The full MCCIP Report Card 2020 can be accessed at http://www.mccip.org.uk/media/1999/mccip-report-card-2020_webversion.pdf

Further information

NERC https://nerc.ukri.org/planetearth/stories/1939/

Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP) http://www.mccip.org.uk/

National Oceanographic Centre https://noc.ac.uk/